That may sound a little odd.
Over the last few months, NFT art hasn’t exactly been a posterchild for stability. Prices have gone up and down more than most of us would like. (We like up.)
This is still the wild west, even for NFT art.
And I’m not suggesting 2022 won’t be without its surprises for art collectors.
I just think it might be stable relative to everything else going on in this space.
Here’s what I’m thinking… in three parts.
Flooded with new platforms, services, and buyers, the world of NFTs is going to get even more crazy.
As they like to say, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
This year will see Coinbase becoming a major marketplace for NFTs, showing the way for millions of new buyers. And Coinbase won’t be alone in onboarding a whole new generation of users.
Consider gaming… where hundreds of millions of gamers will be given the opportunity to buy in-game NFTs this year.
The growth of NFTs in the metaverse will be huge too… with contenders like The Sandbox, CryptoVoxels, Decentraland, Somnium Space and others. Not to mention the plans Mark Zuckerberg has for Meta and Oculus.
Big brands like Coca-Cola, Gucci, Nike and Adidas have already created NFTs for their fans. Sports teams and celebrities too.
My point being, with this much innovation in our industry, there is plenty of space for craziness, confusion, and instability.
And that’s without considering the chaos we might face as governments come up with new legislation impacting the buying and selling of NFTs.
It’s going to be a nutso year.
Meanwhile, pfp projects may become even more unpredictable.
I don’t buy and sell pfps, principally because I have a short track record of being really bad at it.
But it’s a space that still intrigues me.
And I really wonder how things will work out, particularly for the superstar projects like Bored Ape Yacht Club.
I’m going to get into a boatload of trouble here… but can you explain to me why a floor Ape is worth over $250,000? Or why top-tier Apes go for several million dollars each?
If I traveled back in time to 2020, showed you a picture of a Bored Ape, and told you it was worth two or three million dollars… you’d tell me I was mad.
You’d have no point of reference. Without any knowledge of NFTs, it couldn’t possibly make sense to you.
How or why does it make sense today?
Maybe you’ll talk to me about community. You’ll tell me about how Snoop Dogg and Eminem both own Bored Apes. You’ll tell me about the great team and their amazing roadmap.
But still… $250,000? Millions?
What happens when 10, 100, and then 1,000 people sit up, slap themselves on the forehead and say something along the lines of, “Damn, I can buy a new house for that. Or pay off the mortgage. Or pay for all my kids’ education. Or simply retire.”
Yes, you can swap an NFT of a Bored Ape for a really nice house.
Don’t tell me there is no risk or instability there.
What makes NFT art any more stable?
Let’s apply the same test.
I travel back in time.
I show you the million-dollar Bored Ape… and you tell me I’m mad.
Then I show you a million-dollar Fidenza, by artist Tyler Hobbs.
If you have even a passing knowledge of the prices paid for top-tier contemporary art in the real world, you might say, “Wow, great art. Good price too!”
The point is, you’d have context. Real-world contemporary art sells for high prices, and has done for decades.
You can also look at the history of computer art, and even generative art, and see they pre-date NFTs by decades.
Good art has always attracted passionate collectors willing to pay high prices.
As a result, NFT art has deep roots in the real world. And that brings stability.
Pfps don’t have those deep roots. Which makes them a lot less stable.
I’m not saying Bored Apes, CryptoPunks, Cool Cats, CrypToadz and others are on their way to collapse. I don’t know the future any more than anyone else does.
But I am saying they lack the inherent stability of NFT art.
Which means, I think, that more conservative buyers – if anyone in this space can be called conservative – might lean more towards NFT art this year.
I’m pretty sure institutional investors will lean more towards NFT art.
Heck, a few pfp holders might trade in some of their punks and apes for a Fizenda or two.
The NFT art space is a safer space to play in. A safe port in a storm.
At least, for now it is.